PUBLIC OPINION, SECURITY THREATS, AND FOREIGN POLICY FORMATION

This analysis focuses on the domestic factors, such§as public opinion, and international factors, such as§security threats, which affect foreign policy§outputs. Much research has suggested that§governments foreign policy outputs are responsive to§public opinion in advanced democratic countries. §Using the cases of Germany and several US Western§allies, I offer a theory of the effect of public§opinion on foreign policy. I employ several§statistical and cross-sectional time series analyses§as well as process tracing to test the theory and the§generalizability of the hypothesis of an§opinion-foreign policy nexus. I find that the§predicted effect of public opinion on foreign policy§outputs to be confounded by such factors as security§threats. I conclude that a divergence between the§threat perception of leaders and of the public is§likely to result in a lack of congruence between§public opinion and a state s foreign policy outputs.§ Convergence between leaders and public opinion among§US allies in post-Cold War period and particularly in§Germany may have necessitated a reassessment of the§longstanding foreign policy relationship with the US.